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Isstra Belginah

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  1. Not the most obvious headline, right?


    There are two keyboards when it touches the Enter button: keyboards where the Enter is on the right side of the third line of keys from the bottom and above it the backslash button (probably the more common arrangement) and keyboards where the Enter is shorter, Third and fourth, when the backslash is to the left. I do not get along with the first arrangement, and when I have to use a keyboard like that, I find out when I pressed the backslash when I wanted to press Enter, so I make sure to buy keyboards of the second type.


    Bunny-no-remember-the last few years, I used the keyboard Wave K350 which I found very comfortable, but the age of its impact: the writing on some of the keys worn out by use, others get stuck sometimes and the rubber on which the wrist rests is peeling off. It's time to change. But I can not find this keyboard in the country ... just as part of the K550 keyboard and mouse set, and is quite rare. I do not mind buying a mouse and storing it in a drawer, but I asked for it to be checked and the K550 changed with a low Enter key (one line). Not good.


    So you know a shop where you can buy K350 / 550 and be nice enough to open the box and check the height of the key? Alternatively, do you know another ergonomic wireless keyboard with such a key? Better a multimedia keyboard (convenient to change volume like that) but not required.


    budget? Umm. Let's say under a million 😎

  2. Oh, what an original insult! genius. But with your lice, keep in mind that you live in a glass house. I could, for example, call you "Morlock." Or hop on Dr. Morrow's island, where there are quite a few candidates. But I'm nice, so I am not ;-). Look, if you do not understand, ask. It will save you embarrassing messages like the above. You argued that banks are coordinated with interest rates and commissions, I explained that they are not coordinated because there is a cartel but because there is regulation. That you have decided, for no apparent reason, that when I write that the regulator is responsible for the fact that the fees and interest rates are similar, what exactly makes you think that I am talking about fees as a regulation? What is a regulation fee anyway? I could go on to explain to you why most of what you write is not true, but I do not feel like making an effort for you, certainly not at three in the morning.

  3. Why is there no argument? There is an argument. The first points are wrong. A haircut is a good thing, not a bad thing. If I owe you a million and I have none, and all that can be confiscated from me is worth only half a million, but a third party comes and suggests that if you confiscate only a quarter of a million from me, he will complete the amount to two-thirds million, which would you prefer? Get half a million or two-thirds of a million? True, it's better to get the whole million back, but that's not a possibility. Banks, as public companies, are committed to their shareholders. If they can collect a larger amount from the debtors and avoid it, the shareholders - and you are part of them - can sue them. They go into debt settlements not because they feel like doing a favor to the tycoon but because it's the best option left. Consider the Dankner case: the bank agreed to a debt settlement and regretted following public pressure. The result? The bank * lost * several hundred million that he could have gotten if the haircut had been carried out. You knocked yourself out with the pressure on the bank! Well done. But this is true not only for tycoons but for everyone. In fact, when you're not a tycoon, the state * imposes * debt settlements on banks. The bank applied to the OTZLP? You can apply to the OTZLP yourself, prove that you can not repay the debt and the monthly repayment will be determined according to your ability, regardless of the amount of the debt. You may owe a million and the OTZLP will stipulate that you return only NIS 250 a month - well below the interest rate - and the bank will not be able to do anything. At the expense of the pension? No way. Why do you have a pension fund? It sends you quarterly reports. Take a look at them: your pension fund earns you not bad at all, despite all the haircuts. You have the money plus interest. Why interest? Because in a loan there is a risk that you will not see the money (in whole or in part) back, the interest is compensation for the sliding risk. If you were not offered interest, who would separate from his money? But that means you can not Complain when the risk materializes and some of the money does not return.If there was any way to ensure that the loan would always be repaid - it is said that whoever does not repay, will be sold into slavery for life - first the situation was no better. It is expected that you will not be able to repay a loan you took out. If this had happened, Barak Cohen, for example, would have worked today. Secondly, if there is no risk in giving a loan, the interest rate for it will be much lower. Profit., And losses as a result of debt settlements, even if measured in billions, are much smaller than the profits on those investments. The total assets of the pension funds are close to NIS XNUMX trillion, and together with provident funds, study funds and other investments, the public has more than NIS XNUMX trillion in the capital market. Sorry for the dig, but facts are important.

  4. To say the least. Bought a new luxury executive car (its definition) at the expense of a loan from the bank - and did not return the money. When the bank wanted to bend the car, he tried to hide it. At the same time, he accumulated large debts in the current account, and when Tzulev expropriated property in the apartment where he had lived for eight years with his spouse, he claimed that nothing in the apartment belonged to him. He lived there for eight years and did not contribute a shekel to the joint property? And if that's not enough, there are about ten more cases against him, and he lives at the expense of others.

  5. Banks are coordinated that there is supervision ... Banking Supervision Bank Obligates them to provide a basket of commissions at a uniform maximum price. They are allowed to take less, and small banks do it (and big banks for very profitable customers), but the big ones usually take the maximum, so they wanted it to be the same amount and the interest rate is determined based on the prime rate of a bank , So here too the banks do not have too much room for maneuver. Even today it is possible to easily switch between banks. But people do not do it, preferring to grumble about the fees instead of moving to a bank where the fees are lower ...

  6. A site that writes that wages did not manage to keep pace with price increases and a few lines later shows that wages have risen slightly more than the index is not reliable, and this is just one example: there is more.

    The lack of cooperation with the CBS surveyers is a criminal offense, and the polls report how many refused to answer, and these are very small numbers.

  7. First, Calcalist, so do not take too seriously.

    Second, the number you're looking for is 6,000 and not 5,500 - the unemployed have no pay, so do not take them into account for finding the median in the months they do not work.

    This still leaves a gap of about NIS 500. Where is he from?

    An interesting question, I do not know with anyone bothered once check. I can imagine:

    On the one hand, NATAL has an advantage - they receive the data of all employees directly from employers, while the CBS conducts surveys among about 20,000 families each month. Although this is a broad population, there are still possibilities for errors in the sample. On the other hand, this is a uniform deviation. If the sample was wrong, it is likely that the deviation was sometimes upward and sometimes downward.

    On the other hand, ATL knows only what is reported to him: If someone works in black, in order to eliminate taxes or out of lack of knowledge, in terms of VAT he does not exist. It's a bit hard to tell the CBS surveyor who sits in your living room in the villa, on the Italian leather furniture, in front of the 60 LCD, that you only earn income support.

  8. But half of the country did not live on 5,000 NIS - the median wage in the economy in both 2013 was about NIS 6,500. And this is income for a single person, the average family has more than one breadwinner (I do not remember the exact number and is lazy to inquire). And it is possible to survive with such a wage, a fact that half of the country succeeds.

  9. I did not find a way to link directly to the graph, so I need some work. Start here:

    Going to Section 7. The percentage of employed Israelis who worked part time and then approach the graph on the left and drag its starting point to the middle of the 2009. Surprisingly, the share of part-time jobs is consistently falling. You can also choose to start at a different point in time, if you prefer, and there is still no increase in the percentage of part-time positions.

  10. Life is there, but not at night. Living on this night or those who can afford to go out until morning or vampires - and I'm not either. But I stopped writing because there is more life, you have not seen me in the middle of the night.

    Know? No. But that is why the average - life remains if the same salary, but Shimon received an addition. On average Wages rose. Think that only the rich get additions and they raise the average? Then the median also rose and even more than the average, and the median salary at the ends of the scale did not affect. The average wage has not increased in the past decade? Mistake:

    And if you take the time when Bibi was prime minister, this is even more obvious:

    Or is he also responsible for Olmert?

    True, property owners are usually: older, in the 50 age zone, with revenues peaking and spending to a minimum, and a small part of the debt to banks is theirs, which you do not know does not mean they do not exist.

    Part-time jobs? Also, there is no increase in the rate of part-time positions in the economy (you will have to believe me in the meantime because I can not bring up this graph, and I will probably work later). minimum wage? very true. But those people who did not work previously, the transition from low to low minimum wage but still higher than the benefit certainly improves their situation. What did you think, that anyone who did not work until now would start working straight as CEO at a top decile, and yet, despite the addition of many low-wage workers, dragging the average wage down, it still rose.

    An increase in the standard of living is also due to technological progress, there is no doubt, but if wages were to decline and unemployment rises, people would not have the money to make technological progress. It's really nice to come out 9, but it does not help those who can not afford it. But wages are on the rise and unemployment is falling (along with increased labor force participation), allowing people to buy this iPhone (even though it does not yet exist).

  11. Importers employ far fewer workers than exporters, because importers do not have to produce. Want an example of what could happen in this situation? please.

    Our economy is not on the way to a possible collapse when the people of Israel owe hundreds of billions to the bank and depend on a small number of employers?

    Not even close. The people of Israel owe hundreds of billions to the banks, but it has assets worth Thousands Billions. The debt of households, according to a recent Bank of Israel report, is 40% of our GDP. Compare this to about 55% in Germany, the strongest economy in Europe, 80 in the US, 95 in Canada, or more than 100% in the UK (all the numbers from memory can be a few percent here or there). A larger number of giant companies than elsewhere?

    In the meantime, the economy continues to grow, GDP per capita has never been so high, salaries continue to rise in real terms (both average and median), unemployment at an all-time low, labor force participation at an all-time high, the standard of living rising, And lower than most Western countries), poverty in decline (although the poverty line rises as a result of the increase in median wage), inflation is low - in fact, excluding housing prices, all economic indicators show a consistent improvement in the situation.

    So what crash?

    - - - Unified response: - - -

    Or. Hello where did you run?

    And how is it possible without a friend of ours, Fischer -

    This annoying thing called "life" ... leaves no time for the Internet.

    According to the report six months ago in Dahmarker, they are thinking of raising interest rates, but according to the latest news from the Gazportal, it's very unlikely:

    In her recent speeches, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that there are two different signs that the Fed is relying on in deciding the right time to raise interest rates. The two indicators are low unemployment rates and meeting inflation targets of 2 per year. However, to date, the trends in both indicators are the opposite.
  12. I'm interested in hearing your opinion. What do you think will happen?

    On the one hand, prices are very high and interest rates are low. What will happen to the interest rate? Will prices continue to rise? . Will they freeze?

    On the other hand 70% are owners of apartments, so to speak .. (that have not yet finished paying).

    There seems to be something out of control here. No one really knows what the data are.

    My opinion, when I sat down as an expert?

    When the interest rate rises, and it does not happen soon, prices will stop rising. Why? On the one hand, higher interest means more expensive mortgages, and on the other, higher jam means more options for solid savings. Then it will be more difficult to buy an apartment and will be less worthwhile to buy an apartment. Less demand. But contractors can not respond quickly to change in demand, Kerr will see how long it took them to raise the number of building starts since the big demand began. So supply will not change at first and prices will fall.

    And what will happen then? Do not know. The question is whether this is a bubble, and then it can end badly, if we are lucky, or very bad, if not, or that the rise in prices was due to a real shortage of apartments and then nothing bad will happen.

    - - - Unified response: - - -

    ^ The US is going to raise the interest rate ..

    Is it official? Because I'm very scared from this moment. At the moment, the cheap money is driving the US economy. When the interest rate rises, it will be clear whether the US economy has returned to normal and no longer needs crutches in the form of low interest rates, or, as I fear, the recovery was simulated. On the other hand, the reduction in quantitative expansions has passed quietly, so perhaps the situation there has improved.

    - - - Unified response: - - -

    Zelekha said that at the time he went to Bibi and told him that it would be a disaster to lower the interest rate too much.

    His argument was that lowering interest rates would send the entire capital market to the real estate market and that young couples could not compete in the capital market.

    If Zelekha said this to Bibi, he was mistaken in the address. Anyone who disagrees with the rate of interest is the governor of a bank , Not the prime minister or the finance minister. The government has no influence on the interest rate. After appointing the governor, he is completely independent.

    - - - Unified response: - - -

    It was not just Fisher who had fled to the US, he must have figured out how many people might kill him in the future.

    Also, super-doctor-professor of ultra-turbo economics 2.

    What is Zionism versus a few more dollars in the bank?

    He was offered the position of Deputy Governor of the Fed, the US Federal Reserve. One of the most prestigious jobs there is.

    Fischer had no choice but to lower the interest rate. Credit rating of If the interest rate in Israel was significantly higher than in the rest of the West, investors from all over the world would invest their money here in order to profit from the relatively high interest rate. In order to do this, they had to buy shekels in exchange for foreign currency, and the rise in demand for shekels would have led to an appreciation of the shekel, meaning that the same amount of shekels would have bought a larger amount of foreign currency. And that means that all the exporters were screwed up - their expenses are in shekels, which are now more expensive, but their foreign currency revenues are worth less. Local industry would also be screwed up, if it competed with imports, because when the shekel strengthens, imports are cheaper. Then unemployment would jump.

    Fischer had already said that he would not lower interest rates, and apartment prices were cheaper, but people did not have enough money to buy them.

  13. The increases started with 2007, and the crisis brought worldwideDecline Housing prices.

    The increases started with 2008.

    The crisis is not resulted in The decline in house prices in the world is was created Due to the fall in house prices around the world, especially in the US Many countries in the West took advantage of the cheap credit to enter debt and therefore suffered severe losses in 2008, in Israel, where the debts were (and still are) much lower than in most of the developed countries. One year, there was no bad growth in the economy, while in the rest of the world the growth rate was zero, and there was a recession in the world, meaning less money for citizens, meaning they could buy less, meaning prices continued to fall because there were no buyers. Real (both average and median) actually increased and unemployment is very low, so there was no reason for us to enter The relatively low debt of households enabled them to take advantage of the low interest rate and to take loans easily, and therefore the prices of apartments rose even though there was a significant increase in the number of apartments built.

    Is it a bubble? Maybe. I'm not sure, but it takes a lot more understanding and data than I have. The experts argue about it, so your will know.

  14. First, prior debt:

    Ignoring the rise in the price of the apartment that you can realize the profit here only by selling the apartment, namely the slaughter of goose laying eggs rent. It's like the shares of a company that gives dividends. It's nice that the share price goes up, but to enjoy it you have to sell it and then you can not get more dividends. The rise in price before the property is sold is meaningless: if on January 1, you rent an apartment in one million to 31 in December, its market price has risen to 1.2 million, how much have you earned? Nothing. Profit is the selling price minus the purchase price and you have not sold it yet. Until you sell it prices can go up or down and you can not tell how much you will earn (if at all) in the end. Rent however, come on a regular basis. But who buys an apartment only for rents? After all, it will be decades before the rent will cover the amount they paid for the apartment, ignoring inflation and interest on the mortgage, if leverage was used to buy the apartment.

    Clearly, the interest rate cut had its own effects, but then we can point to a few more triggers (minus bank financing for contractors, for example), all of which stem from the same primary factor - a global recession.

    Much could have been done with the interest rate, but the fact that any central bank whose economy has entered a recession or even just might enter a recession responds with a rate cut. This is the conventional medicine. It seems that in Israel, Fischer reacted too slowly to lowering the interest rate, as can be seen from the appreciation of the shekel against the dollar and the euro. To raise the interest rate? Meanwhile Flug continued to lower it to a negative all-time high, just 0.25%. What would have happened if the interest rate had been higher, that we would know only on the day the time machine was invented. But it seems that Professor Fischer, Prof. Flug and a long list of governors of other central banks think that it is better to lower interest rates during a recession (in the euro zone the interest rate is now negative at all, probably for the first time in history in general).

  15. Housing prices rise on average by 8% a year. Do you have a solid investment that comes to this yield? And this without taking into account the rental income.

    The trigger was the economic crisis (as a result of the subprime mortgage collapse in the US) The interest rate fell because of the crisis, it is not a separate trigger.

    It is common to assume that a low interest rate helps economic activity, but it has disadvantages, not only the increase in house prices, and it is impossible to leave the interest rate artificially low for too long. In fact, the low interest rate is one of the main reasons for the sub-prime crisis in the US But in Israel we have another problem: in all the developed countries there is a zero interest rate at present (and for the foreseeable future). Is not significantly different from that of other developed countries, so the Israeli interest rate can not be significantly different - if it is higher, investors' money will flow to Israel in order to benefit from higher interest rates than can be obtained at the same risk in other developed countries. To do this, they will have to buy shekels, meaning that the shekel will be added. In other words, anyone who exports something will be screwed.

  16. No, Moshe's problem is not shortage of apartments because Moshe is not at all looking for an apartment! But if Shimon now wants to buy an apartment and finds that the prices have gone up and he can not afford to buy the apartment he wanted, his problem is a shortage of apartments. Why is there a shortage, that's another question. It is possible that all construction workers are held hostage by the underground to free Nes Tziona and therefore can not be built. It is possible that following the discovery of huge oil deposits in the North Sea, many penguins have become wealthy and are now buying every available apartment in Israel, but in any case there is more demand from the supply, Ie, shortage, that is, an increase in prices.

    On the contrary, you are the one who did not provide an explanation, ridiculous or not. Prices have been rising for six years, what caused it?

    Investors who buy apartments to earn price increases have long played no significant role in purchasing apartments (data from the Bank of Israel), mainly buyers of new apartments and housing improvements.

    By the way, something interesting has been published in recent days: families with gross monthly income of 7,000 NIS buy a second apartment!

  17. No, Vic, they tell you that there is something forbidden in the apartments and you insist that there is no one who wants to rent a successful apartment. It's not that we finished one robe and moved to another, you surfed from one topic to another, apparently without paying attention, and then you tried to cover up for it.

    Yes, it's an old discussion. Then? still relevant. Well-established municipalities did not want weak populations at the time and they do not want weak populations today. Young couples Are established Prefer four-room apartments, young couples Poor Also, but they can not afford four-room apartments, so they will be satisfied with the lack of choice three-room apartments - which are almost not in these communities. So they go to other communities.

  18. Come on, Vic. How do you know there is a shortage of the product? When there is competition, prices rise! By the way, why do you insist on talking about rent? After all, we talk about buying an apartment, not renting an apartment.

    If the approved building plans do not satisfy you, here is exhibit d: Protocol of the meeting of the Internal Affairs and Environment Committee Of the Knesset, 14 / 4 / 01. Featured Quotes:

    Yuri Stern [MK]:

    We are facing a rather complicated situation. On the one hand, there is no doubt the need to change the existing situation in terms of providing solutions on the subject of small apartments. He volunteered to arrive Goodovitch, the well-known architect who for years was the chief engineer of the city of Tel Aviv, can testify to the number of demands on this subject and how many plans have been submitted, all of which were rejected by the local committee.

    Avner Levy [Association of Contractors and Builders]:

    The ILA is marketing land for the construction of 140-150 apartments, we have no choice, we buy them in the existing building plan, and then we have to market the apartments exactly according to the number of units we bought. When we come to provide solutions to small apartments, the local committee is not prepared, under any circumstances, that in its small part the socio-economic situation will decrease and allow the construction of small apartments.

    Shmuel Arad [Association of Contractors and Builders]:

    There are very long discussions on this subject. We are, unfortunately, a society that disintegrates from its values ​​and this disintegration has reached our big cities. The main problem is in areas of demand, I would say between Haifa and Ashkelon-Ashdod. Precisely the name of the problem. In the far periphery there is no problem. Where they build according to needs. Prices are cheaper there is no problem. As part of the general normative disintegration, I say this, unfortunately, as a citizen of this country, not only as a representative of the Association of Contractors, they decided to use the regulatory means they have in their planning and building laws to remove weaker populations from their cities. The mayor of Netanya, who told the truth from her point of view, increased. A year ago she stood up and said openly: I will not have weak populations, we have enough of them.

    Shmuel Arad:

    What I say is accurate to the last word. That's how the Holon municipality has been building for three years now. The smallest apartment to be built will be 140. That means about $ 1,000, which, in a pen of decision, threw the young couples, the single-parent families, the new immigrants who had no chance of getting to the apartment in 230 for a thousand dollars. More than that, economically, from a national perspective, there are apartments there and you can not sell them because people do not want 250 apartments, they want smaller apartments, this is the first obstacle, what we call planning and building laws. - Yuri Stern proposes here.

    The second part is that after the urban building plan, the entrepreneur, the contractor who came to build, came to the local committee and asked for relief, but what happened in this normative disintegration, the local committees, under the guidance of the mayors who decided not to have weak populations, To the local committees and ask for leniency, say: Go home, do not confirm.

    Noa Ben-Aryeh [Center for Local Government]:

    When the authorities come to demand an addition to their budget, because they can not care about infrastructure for the weak population who approved the construction of the small apartments, and the government says, I do not have a budget, and then I will complain to the authorities.

    Avner Levy:

    Mevasseret is building a complex of 1,000 apartments of the size of 150-180-200 square meters and there are no small apartments, and the local committee there does not give a single apartment of three rooms.

  19. Vic, a fact that you claim there is no one who can not find an apartment. We are not at the point of equilibrium between supply and demand. Anyone who understands how it works does not raise your claim.

    Read again. the surface The average It does not exceed 120 sq.m, nothing prevents a specific apartment from being larger, what does it matter who submitted the plan, this is the approved plan, it seems to you that an initiative is going to limit itself, or that the original plan has not been approved and this is the amended plan or has been made clear to the entrepreneur That he needs to fix the plan so that she will be approved or that he has been in the business for more than two weeks and knows what needs to be done so that his plan will have a chance.

  20. This is how supply and demand works: There are 100 product units that are currently sold at 100. At this price, there is a demand for 130 units. But there are no 130 units but only 100 - there is a shortage. Since there is a shortage and none of the potential buyers want to be the one who will stay without, they try to ensure that they will be the ones who will buy. how? Offer more money: "I'm willing to pay 105". Because the sellers are not suckers, if they have someone willing to buy in the century and someone else who is willing to buy at 105, why not sell to the one willing to pay more? But as we all want to buy, so everyone raises the amount they are willing to pay to 105 and we again have the same problem - more demand than supply. So the buyers will again raise their bids, to 110. At this price, ten of them go out of the game - because they can not afford such a price or because they do not want to pay so much, but there are still 100 units on 120 buyers, which again raise the amount to 115. Rinse, repeat until eventually there are 100 buyers who are willing to pay 125 per unit of product, exactly the number of units currently sold - Equilibrium.This is the new price of the product .What a wonder, the demand is exactly equal to the supply!

    It also works the other way. If there is a demand for 100 units and there will be units for sale, the sellers who do not want to be left with a product that they have nothing to do with it instead of money will lower the price so as not to be the ones who will not succeed. Buyers, who at the previous price did not want to buy but with the new and lower prices they are still interested, so that there will once again be a balance between demand and supply.

    When will this not happen? When the price changes are artificial, for example, if the government determines that the product should not be sold for more than NIS 80 per unit, if the demand is not flexible (ie price changes barely affect demand), these are the exceptions.

    Would you like some examples of TMTs? Please:

    P. 9, Section 4.1.2 A:

    1,117 approved apartments with a total area of ​​†<†<134,040 square meters, or an average of 120 sq. M. 120 M² This is a five-room or four-room apartment, but it is average, you can play with it: 4 ROOMS IN ROOMS OF 105 M, 5 ROOMS OF 120 M² AND SIX THREE ROOMS OF 135 M, Other. The contractor can decide to build three-room apartments there, but each apartment will leave a lot of vacant square meters. So what, they will not build four rooms? This is the most wanted size. The second option is to give up part of the approved area: Although approved 134,040 sq.m., but no one will complain if the contractor will build 1,117 apartments total area is only 132,000 square meters divided into apartments 3-6 rooms. But in this case, the contractor loses: he could build almost another 2,000 square and earn on each of them and avoid it, why would he have any four or five rooms to be built, there is no surplus of such apartments? So he could build apartments in rooms 3?


    The same section of course. Apartments with an average area of ​​†<†<100 square meters, plus 12 sq. M terrace and storage space 6.Once again, it is suitable for four and five-room apartments, not three.


    This time you go to section 2.2:

    107 sq. M. Average for an apartment, but - a surprise! - 10% of the apartments area of ​​†<†<up to 80 sq. These are three-room apartments. Why suddenly approved small apartments? Well, this is Unterman Street, ie, south of Tel Aviv.Not even if 10% of the apartments will be only 80 sq.m., the average area of ​​the rest of 90% of apartments will be 110 meters. Five rooms. South Tel Aviv and yet only a small part of the apartments will be three rooms.

  21. Micro-economics is definitely Macroeconomics, on the other hand, is mathematics with mass psychology, since the psychology of individuals is very inaccurate and the psychology of a whole lot more so, macroeconomics is far from being Precise. Usually, as they have already written, it can explain in retrospect what happened, and even then the economists do not always agree on the explanation, but predicting what is going to happen sometimes succeeds and often does not.

    It has nothing to do with the French, it only started recently and there are not too many of them yet. To the question of why prices are rising there is a clear and well-known answer. In fact, I have already written it here in this discussion: the explosion of the subprime mortgage bubble in the US Yes, a sharp decline in apartment prices abroad led to a sharp rise in house prices in Israel.

    The bursting of the bubble in the US caused a global recession.

    Banks give loans. Loans do not always succeed in repaying and when that happens, the bank loses. So banks do not give loans when they think that the borrower has a relatively high chance not to succeed in repaying them. When there is a recession, the public's revenues are small and more people find it difficult to repay loans they took, so during the recession banks are very careful in providing loans. Contractors need loans to build: you invest a lot of money in building today to get even more money in a few years, but without a loan today, you can not build. So in times of recession, contractors build less.

    On the other hand, a series of savings instruments are becoming risky or have low profitability either as well as during a recession. By the way, stocks and foreign currency are becoming risky, savings plans and state bonds are giving zero return when the central bank, in almost Pavlovian response, lowers the interest rate to ease the credit crunch in the economy. So the middle and upper classes have a problem, their savings are eroded and there is nothing to do with them. Actually there is housing. Because apartments will always have and unlike other investments, rented apartment gives monthly profit without damaging the fund. And if there is not enough money for an additional apartment, no problem - since the interest rate has fallen, mortgages are cheap.

    So buy apartments for investment. That is, the demand for apartments is rising. Since on the other hand, the supply is falling, the price is rising. It can be seen that the current increase began immediately after the bubble burst in the United States in 2008.

    So why does not it end? That the interest rate continues to be low and is actually declining. The new is reached a new negative peak of only 0.25%. On the other hand, although investors already buy much less (those who have already bought), there is a high demand from residential apartment buyers, who are convinced that if they wait, house prices will rise faster than any possible savings, so that what they will not achieve today, they will never achieve. Then demand continues to be high. When prices rise, you usually expect to see a growing supply to cope with demand, why does not it happen here, because obtaining building permits in Israel is a nightmare that goes on for years, and also the government woke up too late.

    The apartments in the center are built to a higher standard. There are more rooms, but the rooms they once built were bigger. The size of the apartments is not determined by the contractors but by the municipalities, in accordance with the building permits they provide. Strong municipalities (and all of them are in Gush Gan - well, except for Bnei Brak) want middle- and upper-class residents, so they will not have to invest much in welfare. People of the lower class can not buy large apartments, so by requiring contractors to build such apartments, they move the poor to the periphery.

  22. Yes, but the deployment to payments does change here. Let's say that the 100,000 shekel is a difference of 600-700 per month for a typical mortgage, from the point of view of the state it is 100,000 or NIS on which it receives tax immediately Or another 600-700 per month if I had, then Maybe I would have spent them on something else (and not necessarily an expense from which the state receives tax) Maybe I would save them with a saving plan, Maybe They were swallowed up in the minus that I already have (a negligible part of the people running in a fixed minus, unfortunately), and maybe part of it is part there.

    It does not work that way. Yes, tax is immediately preferable to tax, but on the other hand, when you pay a mortgage, you pay a lot more than you received, so the amount you can not spend and therefore will not pay tax on is significantly higher, so in the long run the state will lose more.

    What if the other options? The state collects tax on almost anything. Savings plan? Is there a tax on this? Minus? It is created when you spend money that you do not have, an expense that usually pays a tax.

    Equally, the state earns tax on cigarettes, but clearly tries to reduce its income from this tax. After all, you have not seen a pack of cigarettes labeled "Warning: The Health Ministry says smoking is sexy," right?

    Still, you're talking about an extreme case is very (Which we have already agreed is not good for anyone), that people will become insolvent and that housing prices will drop so that the bank will not be able to cover the rest of the loan with the price of the apartment. From here to the argument that "sometime prices have fallen and then the banks in trouble" the distance is very large.

    Okay, getting. If there will be a drop in prices, the banks will be in trouble, if they declined moderately, no. And on the other hand, as I wrote, if prices fell, more people will be able to buy apartments and banks will be able to actually earn more. Mortgage banks can not raise housing prices.

    - - - Unified response: - - -

    It is not correct to say that he "establishes a lower barrier" - he constitutes component At a price, just as cement is a component in price. Is Hamlet also a "bottom barrier"? You can think of each component as a lower barrier. They are not, they are simply what they are: cost components. In fact, it is quite a significant component of the price. And like any component, its price can rise, and it can also go down.

    Okay, I did not get it right. The cost to the contractor determines a lower price barrier and the cost of the land is part of it. But again, even if the state will distribute the land free of charge to contractors, housing prices will not fall in shekels - the profit of contractors will rise accordingly, that's all, because the price of apartments is determined at all lack of them and not because of their cost.

    And the state as aforesaid has interest Dragging feet and not releasing a lot of land at once (before there is more demand) - it is entirely equivalent to destroying surplus crops - this leads to an increase in price. The bureaucracy serves it in almost every possible "level" that will not be examined.

    An excellent example. You do not see the destruction of surplus crops at the price of, say, tomatoes, is 15 per kilo, right, because there is no surplus, on the contrary, there is a shortage, and in extreme cases such imports are approved even though the Ministry of Agriculture usually protects farmers The Israeli. Are there surplus apartments? Certainly not - there is a serious shortage. The state can market land now at high prices, so why not? Again, high prices for apartments annoying citizens and a citizen who is nervous about the government, the chances of voting for her are small. Which party does not want to be voted for?

    Since the organizational / administrative reforms are also difficult and very complex to implement, no politician is really eager to take up this challenge and risk that the failure (if it happens) will be upheld, or alternatively, that the fruits of his efforts will be credited to another politician, One government). And I do not even go into the built-in opposition of the public system to reforms of this kind (of efficiency) that ultimately embody significant cuts in manpower.

    In the previous Knesset there was an attempt to pass two reforms in the field, one fell and the other was cut until there was too little left. And who dropped them? It is the people who claim that those who tried to pass the reforms are responsible for housing prices. Remember what was the main argument? That Bibi wants to hand over our "land" to the tycoons.

    With regard to the periphery, this is a completely different story, and it is related to the issue of transportation, even though the state does not invest seriously (again, for reasons similar to what I mentioned earlier). Moving to public transportation, for example, could lead to a significant reduction in state revenues - due to a decrease in the use of vehicles, fuel, etc.

    And that's not true either. After all, they have changed the tax on vehicles so that fuel-efficient cars have a lower tax than wasteful cars, how does that fit your theory? After all, economical cars consume less fuel and therefore the state earns less. Logic says that more economical cars will be more tax-deductible in order to reduce their purchases or at least partially compensate the state for the taxes that will be lost later, and that's not what happened. But this theory does not fit reality. Again, cigarettes: the attempt to reduce the sale of cigarettes reduces state revenues and still the state tries to reduce its own income from cigarettes by reducing their consumption.

    You forget that housing prices have risen by tens of percent in recent years ...

    There is no need for an extreme drop in the bank's ability to cover the rest of the loan by realizing the assets (following a decline of several tens of percent).

    Since we are in a bubble that does not reflect real value but an artificial gap between demand and supply created by forced manual regulation, its crash can be very rapid.

    If the prices collapse - yes. If there is a moderate decline - no.

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